As Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre pointed out, the danger with wars is that they rarely follow a script. And this has happened in the Middle East war as well. The conflict is between America-backed Israel and Iran. However, it is Russia that has both hands in the cookie jar.

The U.S. and Israel probably had no idea about Iran’s defense capabilities when they started the war. Yes, they are still in a state of strategic confusion. With limited resources, Iran is hitting America where it hurts. And this is where Russia enters the picture.

Russia Sharing Intelligence With Iran

As Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer, pointed out, the coordinates of military installations are much more crucial than bullets. The side that knows the locations of enemy military facilities wins most often. And the Russian intelligence pipeline is helping Iran track fast-moving American military assets. This vital information is helping Iran direct its missiles and drones across the Middle East bases, inflicting maximum damage to the United States.

Besides Russia, even China is giving Iran access to advanced satellite constellations instead of troop deployments. However, to save face diplomatically, the Russian government has assured Trump they are not providing any intelligence to Iran. China condemned the US-Israel attack on Iran, but it has not openly pledged military support.

Trump Offers a Vital Lifeline for Putin’s War Machine

Wonder How Russia benefits from Iran war? Russia depends on energy revenues to support its Ukraine invasion. Thus, Western nations decided to weaken the country’s military effort by imposing sanctions on Russian oil and gas. It did hurt Russia financially, but the pressure was not enough to force it to stop the Ukraine invasion.

Oil prices have reached as high as they were during the initial phases of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And one key section of the seaway known as the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for this. 

The Strait of Hormuz is located between Iran and Oman. It is a passage for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Thus, crude prices have remained high since last month. To ease the pressure on oil prices,  U.S. President Donald Trump played another card. On Thursday, March 12, 2026, Trump said he would lift the sanctions on Russia. According to him, this would help increase the global oil supply amid soaring prices due to the war in Iran. Initially, planned as a 30-day sanctions waiver, it could be extended further. As expected, Russia has welcomed this decision. And why wouldn’t they? After all, this will help them start earning millions of dollars from oil revenue.

However, this has irked NATO members. On March 13, 2026, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Støre, and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney were in Bardufoss, Norway. They participated in NATO’s massive Cold Response exercise. During the event, the leaders from Germany, Norway, and Canada said removing sanctions placed against Russia, even temporarily, was a wrong move. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was also a part of the event. On being asked about his view with regard to lifting sanctions on Russia, he said putting an end to Russia’s oil and gas revenue is the only way to halt its war machine. And lifting sanctions is just the opposite of that. It will prove to be a disadvantage for Ukraine. It will have a huge impact on the Ukraine war and wider NATO security. He also pointed out that six countries out of the G7 nations are against the temporary waiver on sanctions. On the other hand, the United States suggested this would not provide any vital financial benefit to the Russian government. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary said the intention is to bring some stability to the global energy markets. Oil and gas supplies worldwide are under stress due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Russia’s Oil and Gas Math

In 2021, the combined oil and gas export revenue was around $240 billion. Further, the revenue fell to $99.34 billion in 2023 due to sanctions. The number reached $140.2 billion in 2024, but it dropped to $108.03 billion in 2025. Besides losing business from Europe, a stronger ruble, American sanctions, and lower oil prices also led to the fall in revenue.
Oil and gas exports are the main source of revenue for Russia. The country is spending heavily on defense and security since it started invading Ukraine in 2022. So, any increase in oil and gas revenue, due to Sanctions waiver 2026, is good news. And the Trump-induced Strait of Hormuz crisis delivered just that.

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